Why Is tornado warning Trending Today?

Note the 10% hatched area across portions of eastern Illinois and south-central Indiana. >A semi-focused zone of peak severe/tornado potential may unfold generally near I-70, southward to near I-64, across southern Illinois and southern Indiana this afternoon through early/mid-evening. . . . **relatively long-lived multi-hour supercells are plausible, with all hazards possible, but notably including heightened tornado potential, a few of which could be strong (EF2+)**. Based on model guidance, the peak threat window will be mid-to-late afternoon through early evening (approximately 3-8pm CT).

12z NAM 3km reflectivity, 12pm – 12am CT https://i.redd.it/4mcgkzyndhkg1.gif

15z HRRR reflectivity, initialization (9am) – 12am CT https://i.redd.it/exuezssydhkg1.gif

A tornado watch has been issued for portions of southeastern Illinois, southern Indiana, and northwest and central Kentucky. The watch is in effect from 1:15 pm ET (12:15 pm CT) until 9pm ET (8pm CT). https://preview.redd.it/yh3s2ptv0ikg1.png?width=525&format=png&auto=webp&s=678d1f118d3a83486e5f8ebfea0e8b9124e4733b URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 10 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM EST. * Primary threats include… A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY…Thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon from southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and western/central Kentucky. In these areas, increasing low-level moisture will lead to airmass destabilization. Strong vertical shear is in place, supporting the potential for some of these storms to organize into supercells. All severe hazards are possible with any supercells that develop, including very large hail greater than 2″ in diameter and tornadoes. Low-level shear is strong enough to support the potential for a strong (EF2+) tornado. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Evansville IN to 50 miles east northeast of Louisville KY.

https://preview.redd.it/pnufr3w42ikg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd8fef152108fd1421933d01e85d6cc8d7318de9 Composite radar at 2pm ET

Mesoscale Discussion #98 https://preview.redd.it/5shivoyl1ikg1.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9b5940c7714f7c9aecb0ddc10cc5683d8ea2891 Mesoscale Discussion 0098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Areas affected…portions of central/southern IL/IN into western/central KY Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely Valid 191734Z – 191930Z Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent [UPDATE: A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED] SUMMARY…The severe risk will increase across central/southern Illinois and Indiana into western/central KY over the next 1-2 hours. Storm coverage and intensity will gradually increase, along with a risk for large hail, tornadoes, and strong wind gusts. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 19z for portions of the region. DISCUSSION…Broken cloudiness has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s across much of the region at midday. A warm front extending across central IL/IN will continue to gradually lift north. Across the moistening warm sector south of the front, dewpoints have increased to the low 60s along the Ohio River southward, and into the upper 50s south of the I-70 corridor. Cold temperatures in the 700-500 mb range atop the moistening boundary layer is supporting destabilization across the region. While MLCAPE is expected to remain modest, vertically veering wind profiles are present and will support supercell thunderstorms. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest large hail will be possible with these storms. Furthermore, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH increasing to 150-200 m2/s2 is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. This should support a risk for tornadoes despite the modest boundary layer moisture. A couple of tornadoes could become strong, especially within a corridor from east-central/southeast IL into southern IN. A tornado watch is expected in the next 1-2 hours for portions of the region. [UPDATE – A tornado watch was issued at around 17z].

Possible hook echo near the Indiana/Kentucky border at 2:30pm ET – southeast of Leopold, IN, west of Brandenburg, KY https://preview.redd.it/qdlewec77ikg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f48fdb61d3b201608a7be1446188c3a53aa1e718

https://preview.redd.it/ir87maf87ikg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=96d5e8aa17ed223a3bebbc8f70e0f69bff7c9d0d

https://preview.redd.it/oacrxt197ikg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f818aa4049b22250cedfce712459087e7af5eb6e

2:36pm ET https://preview.redd.it/2i8bq1zw7ikg1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e5936a8a3a1964cedc7c6df3ba3e659e20ab5fd