The topic “did the groundhog see his shadow” is trending now due to the recent Groundhog Day celebrations in 2026, which generated significant media coverage. Notably, Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog, was reported to have seen his shadow, while Woodstock Willie, another groundhog known for his weather predictions, did not see his shadow. These contrasting outcomes have sparked widespread interest as audiences seek information about the implications of these predictions.
The news signals from reputable sources, including CBS News and NBC 5 Chicago, have contributed to the surge in search interest. They provided timely updates on both groundhogs’ forecasts, capturing public attention during a traditionally celebrated event. This timely coverage has prompted many individuals to search for further details, explanations, and related information about the tradition.
The high volume of searches reflects the collective curiosity surrounding Groundhog Day, particularly in regard to what the predictions signify for the upcoming weather. The anticipation built by media outlets around the outcomes of Phil and Willie’s predictions naturally led to increased inquiries, as people wanted to confirm the news and explore the significance of these forecasts.
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S
In an Age dominating by Channeling he was the most powerful and naturally skilled Channeler.
H
My headcanon was that he, like Nynaeve was equally skilled in all 5 weaves, but on a much larger scale. Rand has feats that Nynaeve wouldn’t even dare to replicate 😭
S
The more powerful they are the quicker they learn and the more advanced they can become. This is why Lanfear is so dangerous because she’s the female equivalent of Rand/LTT in terms of power scaling.
H
I don’t think she’s as strong in one power as Rand, or as LTT, she sorta fears him, subtly and loves him and I don’t think she’s one to love someone weaker. That said, I’ve heard men are basically stronger in raw power (saidin allows) but women can do more with it, which would put lanfear on same level(technically $ That said, moridin and Rand handled her pretty well
S
She’s as strong as it’s possible for a female to be, Rand is as strong as it’s possible for a male to be. Cyndane was less powerful. Whilst men are always stronger, females tend to be more dexterous and skilled so they are close as it’s possible to be to the very tippy top of all Channelers. Any other channeler in the series is a step down from both on either side.
H
We are in agreement then. Lanfear was the only one to actually display power and not run away, so I give her that. Loved how she showed egwene her place 😭
S
Welllllllll, she WAS as strong as possible. Until Alivia was born. Cyndane notes she is stronger than her Lanfear strength
S
I thought she only knew she was stronger than her now, as Cyndane. If you check RJ’s power scaling notes, I promise you Lanfear is top for a woman. Maybe Alivia is equal or just below?
K
Yes, Alivia is stronger than Cyndane, not Lanfear.
R
Was it Graendal in one of the dream world meeting that remarks Lanfear was as strong as a woman could be? I think I read it in a companion book too.
S
I’m not gonna lie. I love the Choedan Kal chapter. One of my favorite. I’ve listened to it or the Wheel Weaves episode on this chapter while working out half a dozen times altogether. Cyndane in her second or third perspective makes very clear Alivia is stronger even than she used to be (the wording which is one of the biggest Lanfear hints). Then she gets super pissed that any woman would dare be stronger than her. Read Winter’s Heart, Choedan Kal and the Cyndane perspectives and it is made abundantly clear that Lanfear is acknowledging this
S
I’ve just checked and RJ’s notes has Lanfear, Alivia and Semirhage tied as the maximum strength a woman can be.
R
Alivia had an angreal and that is why she was stronger.
S
At the highest ranking, yes. But that doesn’t take into account the power WITHIN that ranking. Rand and Rahvin are both at the highest ranking, but Rand is stronger. Same with Alivia and same with the idea that Lanfear was the strongest rather than being as strong as Semirhage. And this is Lanfear’s POV that Alivia is stronger than she was even at her strongest. Choedan Kal, Winter’s Heart. I would check that as well.
S
Also Moridin had a mandate from the DO and paid or demanded to return her from the Finn. She comes back less powerful on her new body due to the Finn feeding on her power. Same as Moiraine, yet in the end she still lives whilst evil else perished lol.
G
Tbf I think Moridin killed her as punishment for her failure.
S
Probably, but he had to get access to her which probably cost something (or cost a threat).
G
Oh for sure. He bargained for her release and killed her as punishment. I just wanted to clarify in case someone thought the Finn killed her ir something.
S
My fault for leaving it open ended previously. 👍
G
No fault! It’s possible I just like talking about the series 😉
D
There are multiple comments from the Forsaken understanding LTT’s ta’veren nature (LTT made his own luck as a mint makes coin) and they seemed to realize that it’s difficult to fight against someone when everything seems to always go their way so they seemed to assume Rand was similar
G
Nah, Rand has the same relative strengths as LTT – he was extraordinary at Fire and Spirit, likely had good strength with Earth (as men generally do, but we don’t really see), and was likely more typical with Water and Air. He’s still crazy strong overall, so his “weak” Air and Water is still tremendous, it just isn’t outsized relative to his overall strength. Whereas with Fire and Spirit, he probably was the absolute strongest possible.
H
I mean stilling three Aes Sedai at once? That’s crazy spirit work. Also holding off 3 waves of full circle attempts to shield him? Don’t get me started about maradon
G
For sure. Fire and Spirit, nobody is stronger. And unlike Rahvin, LTT is extremely capable. Rahvin’s not *bad*, but there’s a reason the discussions of power all go (roughly): “Lews and Ishy were incredible, and Demandred was really close. Oh. Yeah, Rahvin was stronger than Demandred, but meh.”
H
I’ve always thought of him as a privileged prick with so much potential but was too posh to train and relied too much on raw power, but that wouldn’t save u against someone on ur level but with a lot more training. Besides all he can do is compel but better than anyone. Even after his death, his work on morgase was a spectacle
G
Yeah, he had a knack for Compulsion. I don’t know if his issue was being posh, or just laziness. Like Balthamel, he’d rather spend his time with hookups. Which I *understand*, but it does get in the way of greatness.
R
Stilling three Aes Sedai at once is nothing though. Egwene does a dozen things at once at the end of the series. It’s only for average channellers that doing three things at once is very difficult.
H
Oh stilling someone isn’t nothing, it’s not the same as shielding. For context Rand did what will either take atleast 13 aes Sedai to do three different times or 36 (3 different circle). So Yh, it’s not the same and Egwene couldn’t even shield three decently strong Aes Sedai lol, the power scaling are different. It’s not just doing “three things” Besides most of Egwene’s feats were with a as’ angrreal towards the end
R
Egwene Stilled Amico all on her own without even knowing what she was doing. You don’t need a circle to Still someone, all you need to do is shield them, but instead of a blunt weave, you use one that’s razor sharp. Shield anyone who is holding the One Power is difficult and you need to be much stronger. Egwene could do so to Amico because she was much stronger, and Rand could do so to the Aes Sedai because he’s much stronger. Nynaeve could shield or Still almost any Aes Sedai in the White Tower if she wanted to, all on her own, even if they were holding the One Power. Egwene having problems shielding the stronger Aes Sedai makes sense, because you need to be much stronger to shield someone holding the One Power.
Z
It’s not the number of things, it’s what the thing is. Think of every other instance in the series of a channeler actually *stilling* someone in the series, not just shielding. They all require a full circle to still one person. Rand did the work of three entire circles at once.
R
Egwene Stilled Amico fine all by her own, and she didn’t even know what she was doing. Nynaeve and Moghedien tried to Still each other in their duel, with their shields fluctuating between razor sharp and blunt. The Aes Sedai use a full circle to Still someone, but that’s just tradition, it’s not needed.
Z
Am I misremembering or wasn’t Amico stilled via TAR shenanigans? And completely accidental. And yes, nynaeve and moggy (two extremely powerful channelers) tried to sever each other and failed, which isn’t really much of a counter point. We see severing done completely in the waking world done by a single person one time successfully, and it’s Rand doing it to three at once. I don’t know how you can call it “nothing.” If it was nothing, just a normal weave to throw out, it would have been thrown around by every Black sister and dreadloard and Forsaken. It would be incredibly effective and there’s numerous opportunities to do it to unsuspecting people. It’s not, therefore I think it’s pretty clear that it’s very difficult to do
R
The mirror comment you saw is cute but very silly. We only have to look at the greed and corruption of the real world to understand. If the dark one appeared in our real world today offering eternal life and glory how many of the people in charge of this planet would swear immediately. Fucking shit loads. Thats how many lol. There’s lots of assholes running around pretending to be the good guys.
G
He was a politician, more or less president of the world, the strongest and among the most accomplished Aes Sedai of his Age (along with Ishy). He was also an athlete (fencer), and an artist. He was good enough at the stuff he did to earn a third name, although I don’t know exactly what he did to earn it. And of course he married Ilyena. So…probably the most powerful and influential man in the world, plus he’s extremely capable and extremely talented, presumably rich, loved by the people, and married to a beloved and beautiful woman of great merit too. Is it a shock that people (who are fundamentally united by the common traits of extreme selfishness and being not as good as him at stuff) envy him? Then, during the War, he became supreme commander of the Light, their best general (arguably, according to Forsaken), probably the most skilled and cunning war mage on the planet, and he personally lead the assault that sealed the personified cosmic force of entropy away (along with all of the Forsaken). So yeah, he scares the pants off of them. We only get a real glimpse of it at Maradon, but he did that kind of thing for *years* in the AoL, including fighting off powerful channelers. In sum, he’s incredibly: powerful, influential, successful, and loved, both in war and in peace, on a scale unprecedented, while married to a woman that half the male Forsaken actively drool over and one of the female Forsaken utterly loathes. Edit: And he’s the biggest *ta’veren* ever, ever. And, reborn as a bumbling farm kid, somehow manages to wipe out four Forsaken (six, if you count Ishy each time he got beaten) with the help of a half-trained Aes Sedai kid and glorified farm equipment (if you want to boil down Someshta to that) in the span of three books.
H
Love this! Especially llyena’s part. Also, my mind can’t comprehend LTT casually doing what Rand did at Maradon, that’s too much power for one person. And we saw how he sorta overpowered Moridin in his dreamshard too, so it’s safe to say he’s the best there could be(literal god on earth)
G
I think Maradon vs Merrilor, Rand vs Demandred and Taim, really highlights it, too. I mean, both Demandred and Taim, with the *sa’angreal* *Sakarnen* (sp?) cut a massive swathe through the forces of the Light, but they’re half screwing around taunting. They just balefire a bunch. Big balefire, scary balefire, for sure, but there’s no nuance or finesse. They’re both distracted by their own petty BS and schemes, and basically play magical Godzilla. In contrast, look at Rand. He’s focused, he’s *precise*, he’s managing dozens of powerful weaves at once, for a solid hour. We know how skilled Demandred actually is, and obviously that applies to being a general, but he’s too caught up in his petty crap to really be the *great* man he once was. And Taim? Pffft. Taim is a thug. A cunning thug for sure, but if Moiraine or Siuan had his power level, they’d be miles more effective. Or…barrels? Tons? I don’t know the unit of measure for effectiveness. Trafalgars? Anyway, imagine how effective Tam would be with Taim’s powers. I think what we see of the powerful folk on the Shadow’s side really highlights how great LTT was. Same with what we see of the vastly weaker folks on the Light’s side – the Tams and Moiraines and Siuans, the Mins and Galads and Gauls. LTT had both that strength of character and will, and the phenomenal cosmic power (but he also had living space!). He was just arrogant on top of that. Rand was better raised.
R
It’s not too much. We’ve seen other channellers that are much weaker wreck havoc. Rand did have an angreal, but Moiraine with an angreal raised a massive wall of fire that stopped a horde of trollocs. Egwene blew up a whole street in an instant, after just a few weeks of training with the Seanchan. And Rand is much, much stronger and more skilled. LTT is also likely not just at peak strength, but I imagine unusually dextrous with using the One Power, making him even stronger than he’d otherwise be.
P
As much as he had his problems, if your response to a glory hound leader who is a little too arrogant is to betray the world to the embodiment of evil then I don’t think there’s much hope for them in the first place. I think we can chalk da lot of it up to the Shadow’s influence over the pattern, corrupting them over time more than anything else. That and they were at the tale end of a faux-utopia, they were people of privilege having to fight for the first time & face the abyss & what lies within.
G
> if your response to a glory hound leader who is a little too arrogant is to betray the world to the embodiment of evil then I don’t think there’s much hope for them I mostly agree in premise, but I think this oversimplifies it. Bitterness and envy toward Lews is only one component of it, imo, and not even the greatest component. All of the Forsaken are selfish on a big scale. They all have at least one other significant negative personality trait too (rage, envy, etc.). Many of them, including Demandred and Sammael, turn partway through the war. So add a buttload of war trauma (which we know can warp even great people). They’re also pretty heavily worked on by the Shadow. We don’t have it explicitly stated, but *that’s how the Shadow works*. It finds the in (selfishness, trauma, etc.) and pokes away at them until you break. Look at how close Rand came to breaking. Again, we don’t have it explicitly stated, but it was a war where kids were trained to turn in their parents, entire cities were balefired, etc. It would be silly to believe they weren’t working like this on every high flier they could find, in a war that lasted 2-3 times as long as the series. Obviously the Forsaken started from a point of vulnerable personalities for it. I’m not saying Demandred was a saint at first. But boiling it down to a fit of bitterness and envy doesn’t paint the full picture.
R
I think it’s likely that positions of power attract people who are greedy and ambitious, and there’s likely going to be some selection there based on those who want it enough to compete for it, so to speak. Most people who get there aren’t going to be monsters, but the *monsters* will get there as well, at least the talented ones. So it’s not strange that some of the most prominent Forsaken were in leadership positions for the Light. Demandred and Sammael had massive egos and obviously had some lack of compassion and empathy, or they were extremely selective with how those were applied. If Demandred had been named the general of the Light, I think he might well have stayed, because he would’ve gotten the attention he believed he deserved. He would’ve stayed for “bad” reasons, basically. He might even have cared and felt upset when the Shadow slaughtered people, because they would’ve been *his* people. And the Shadow wouldn’t have poked at anyone the same way during the War Power. Rand’s paranoia and was due to the madness, but no one grew mad that way before the Dark One was sealed.
G
I agree with most of that, but not the last paragraph. > And the Shadow wouldn’t have poked at anyone the same way during the War Power. Why do you believe this? I don’t think it stands to reason. Poking at people (capable or otherwise) is one tool to achieve success. Big battles and massacres are another. I don’t think the Shadow is going to ignore the one just because the other is available. > Rand’s paranoia and was due to the madness I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about the near constant effort to scare/bully/hurt/traumatize him, starting all the way back with Ishy in his dreams in Book 1, continuing through the various Darkfriends nudging or threatening him, the beatings in the box, and ultimately Semirhage’s gambit. All processes designed to manipulate him, or make him more vulnerable to manipulation, so that he turns. The same is true with Taim at the Black Tower. Sure, he grabs some trainable Darkfriends straight away, but many take a level of manipulation to roll over. Yes, they’re the same sort of people that have the negative traits you describe, but you can bet it was happening to others too, some of whom may have turned. Finally, the Bore was open and unsealed for decades before the War of Power (iirc RJ said it opened 50 years before the Breaking, and the war lasted a decade or so). So TDO was free to poke directly at whomever he wanted – again, likely by making their lives suck until they got fed up and succumbed. Imo
R
>Why do you believe this? I don’t think it stands to reason. Poking at people (capable or otherwise) is one tool to achieve success. Big battles and massacres are another. I don’t think the Shadow is going to ignore the one just because the other is available. Because the way the Shadow poked at Rand was via literal corruption of saidin. Saidin was not corrupted during the War of Power. Rand only came close to breaking because of the madness. I think it’s pretty much established that the Shadow enticed people of course, and it would have found those who were greedy and ambitious or those with character flaws that were prone to evil (e.g. Semirhage). So that definitely happened. What you say probably happened as well, but I don’t think someone like Demandred would’ve been as susceptible to it. As far as we know, none of the lives of the Forsaken sucked beforehand, and Demandred’s certainly didn’t, as he was one of the most renowned, powerful and influential people in the world. I think it was more the temptation angle. Have someone close by who encourages all the dark thoughts. He rages about LTT, he gets encouraged. Etc.
G
> Because the way the Shadow poked at Rand was via literal corruption of saidin. Saidin was not corrupted during the War of Power. Rand only came close to breaking because of the madness. This misses a lot imo. The corruption of *saidin* was absolutely a factor, but the Shadow worked on him *hard* beyond that. Compared to the people fighting the War of Power, Rand’s trauma is comparatively a drop in the bucket. *Saidin’s* taint is why he almost broke *so quickly*. That combo was the only way to work on Rand – because he was such a good egg otherwise, he needed the taint to accelerate it. But even before the taint had time to work, the *fear* was creating the opening. That’s why Ishy did the whole dream thing, to start needling the opening wider. With Demandred, his envy and selfishness and anger were the acceleration tool. His trauma mostly came through the war. That one-two-three punch combo of poking at a weakness (any weakness), leveraging that opening with a combination of temptation and threats, and piling on trauma until someone breaks, is sort of the how-to for manipulators and torturers (as I understand it). Since RJ served in Vietnam and undoubtedly had heard stories, I think he had captured that pretty well. So ascribing it all to the taint is ignoring the rest of the method that does the work. Demandred didn’t have the taint in play, but he had plenty of weakness to needle. Imo
R
Yeah okay, if that’s what you mean then I agree as well. That’s kind of what I meant too, with the Shadow finding those that could be lured over. Some people would have it in them to turn, others would not. The former are much more easily exploited.
G
For sure. I figured we were just stuck on the details/phrasing, which is why I kept trying to elaborate differently.
R
Just to piggyback for a second: I always took Demandred and Sammael’s defections as kinda like “oh man, this guy sucks so bad at generaling, if I was general I’d be wiping the floor with the shadow; screw it, I’m going to the other side, I’m so good this thing will be over in a week.”
H
Fair point
T
I mean, ego is a hell of a drug. From what I remember, he was supposed to be a hard person to work with, stubborn and proud, but how many Aes Sedai were there back then? What’s the percentage that went to the shadow because of him? Was it really about who HE was or more about who they were? We currently have a global power talking about invading an ally because a certain citrus golem didn’t get an award that his melanated predecessor did. I don’t find it hard to believe the forsaken had similarly fragile egos. And if the vast majority of AoL Aes Sedai who worked with him didn’t turn, I’d put that more on the ones who did than on him. I think I even remember it being stated somewhere that if he’s tried to give ‘the Great and Eternal Silver Medal’ more accolades, it would have backfired and he would have gone to the shadow anyway. As for the fear, I imagine they all have their own reasons. People like Lil Moggy 8 Legs were probably scared cause they knew he was stronger/ more skilled then them. Others, like Short King and Capt. 2nd Place thought they were better, but might’ve feared being proven wrong. Then there was also his Ta’veren nature. All the forsaken fighting him had to know they were, in a way, fighting fate itself. That probably played a big roll in why they felt the need to stack the deck in their favor before moving. Probably also didn’t help that The Big Dark forced them to stay their hands until he was past his most vulnerable points.
H
Love this, and ur metaphors had me on my knees😂
M
I think a large part of the Forsakens undoing is their inability to differentiate properly between Rand and LTT. I believe its book 4 where Lanfear states that she didnt want to go against superior forces and the others fall silent only for one of them to say “is he really that strong?”. So theres almost something mystical about him which inheritently makes them fear him aswell.
Additional Sources:
CBS News – Woodstock Willie does not see his shadow on Groundhog Day 2026
NBC 5 Chicago – Did the Groundhog see its shadow? See what Woodstock Willie predicts for 2026
